June 9, 2025
Markets
Fed's Next Move: Reading Between the Lines
The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes reveal growing concerns about persistent inflation despite recent rate hikes. While headline CPI has cooled, core services inflation remains stubbornly elevated, particularly in housing and healthcare sectors.
Federal Funds Rate vs Core CPI (Last 12 Months)
Looking ahead, the Fed faces a delicate balancing act. Markets are pricing in a 60% probability of another rate cut by year-end, but I believe this is overly optimistic.
Federal Reserve
Interest Rates
Inflation
June 2, 2025
Stocks
Tech Earnings Season: AI Hype vs Reality
This quarter's tech earnings revealed a clear divide between companies actually monetizing AI and those still riding the hype wave. NVIDIA's continued dominance in AI chips drove another stellar quarter.
Tech Giant Revenue Growth (YoY %)
The market is beginning to differentiate between genuine AI beneficiaries and companies that simply added "AI" to their pitch decks.
Technology
Earnings
AI
May 26, 2025
Global
Emerging Markets: The Overlooked Opportunity
While developed markets grab headlines, emerging markets are quietly setting up for a potential breakout. Dollar weakness, improving commodity prices, and stabilizing interest rates create a favorable backdrop.
Emerging Markets vs S&P 500 Performance (YTD)
The key catalyst may be China's economic stabilization. Recent policy measures suggest Beijing is committed to supporting growth.
Emerging Markets
Global Economy
China
May 19, 2025
Fixed Income
The Bond Market's Silent Revolution
Fixed income markets are undergoing their most significant transformation in decades. The traditional 60/40 portfolio allocation is being questioned as correlations between stocks and bonds remain elevated.
10-Year Treasury Yield vs High-Yield Credit Spreads
Credit markets are particularly interesting right now. Corporate spreads remain tight despite economic uncertainty.
Bonds
Fixed Income
Portfolio